9 More States hit New Price Peaks -CoreLogic

Nine states established new price peaks in August CoreLogic said today.  The company's August Home Price Index which includes distressed sales was up 0.3 percent nationally during the month and was 6.4 percent higher than in August 2013, the 30th month in which year-over-year home prices have increased.  Along with the national increase Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas and Wyoming all had HPI numbers above their pre-crash peak and all for at least the second time.

Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Michigan (+11.1 percent), California (+9.2 percent), Nevada (+9.2 percent), Maine (+9 percent) and West Virginia (+8.7 percent).

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.9 percent in August 2014 compared to August 2013 and 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis.  Mississippi was the only state which did not post an annual increase; its HPI was down 1.7 percent from a year earlier.  Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

When distressed sales were excluded the greatest appreciation on an annual basis was in Massachusetts (+9.4 percent), Maine (+9.3 percent), West Virginia (+8.9 percent), Hawaii (+8.7 percent) and South Carolina (+8.1 percent).

"The pace of year-over-year appreciation continues to slow down as real estate markets find more balance. Home price appreciation reached a peak of almost 12 percent year-over-year in October 2013 and has since subsided to the current pace of 6 percent," said Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic. "Continued moderation of home price appreciation is a welcomed sign of more balanced real estate markets and less pressure on affordability for potential home buyers in the near future."

"Home prices continue to rise, albeit more slowly, across most of the U.S.," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Major metropolitan areas such as Riverside and Los Angeles, California, and Houston continue to lead the way with strong price gains buoyed by tight supplies and a gradual rebound in economic activity."

While increasing numbers of states are establishing new price peaks the national HPI including distressed sales is still 12.1 percent below its peak in April 2006 while the HPI excluding distressed transactions 8.6 percent.

CoreLogic is forecasting that home prices, including distressed sales, will increase 0.2 percent from August to September and the annual price growth from August 2014 to August 2014 will be 5.2 percent.  With distressed sales excluded those gains will be 0.2 percent and 4.7 percent respectively.  The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices built using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.