The State of the Real Estate Market
#1 Brokerage Incline Village & Crystal Bay 2018
2nd Quarter 2019 Market Trends
High Prices and Low Inventory
The first half of 2019 Incline Village & Crystal Bay real estate market set record highs in median sales prices across all housing categories, which includes Homes, Townhomes, and Condos. The sales were slow to start this year, likely due to a substantial and prolonged winter as well as a continued shortage of inventory.
- The median sales price of Homes climbed 5% to $1,379,000 while the number of sales decreased 13% compared to last year at this time.
- The median sales price of Townhomes rose 20% to $1,295,000, and the number of sales dropped 3% compared to mid-year 2018.
- The median sales price of Condos increased by 5% to $560,000 and had a 20% drop in the number of units sold compared to last year at this time.
The Incline Village & Crystal Bay Seasonality
Seasonality is an essential factor to consider when looking at our housing market because the peak selling season (June-October) is a short five months out of the year and accounts for 51% of the overall sales. So while it might seem like the mid-year sales are lower than mid-year 2018, it’s imperative to compare the snowfall levels as sales drop off starting in November and stretching through May.
Lasting Affects of Winter on Summer Sales
According to onthesnow.com, the Lake Tahoe region had 690 inches of snow and 97 total days of snowfall lasting through the last week of May 2019! Comparatively, the 2017-2018 season had 390 inches of snowfall and only 63 days of snow! That means this year the housing market experienced 43% more snow, which is likely a factor affecting supply as well as delaying the already short summer selling season.
It’s essential to know the seasonality of the real estate market so you can capitalize on the best price as a buyer or seller. You may not think the seasons have that big of an impact on the market, but it does, in some cases as significant as a 10% swing in price in both directions! For example, a $1,379,000 home could have an expense or savings of $137,900 depending on the time of year you are purchasing or selling.
How to Take Advantage of Lake Tahoe’s Real Markets’ Seasonality
So how do you make the most of the real estate market seasonality? The best way is to talk to a local, experienced broker or agent. They will be able to provide you with market metrics for the North Lake Tahoe region that will educate you on the price patterns by comparing the median sales prices and number of sales for each month through different years. This comparison will allow you to identify the market fluctuations and determine when it’s the best time to buy or sell for your needs. At Lakeshore Realty, each Realtor is highly specialized in our niche market, and our sole focus is exclusively Incline Village & Crystal Bay. We encourage you to use our in-depth knowledge of our community and market to help you with the sale or purchase of your home.
2019 Market Reports
Single Family Homes | Real Estate Market Report
The housing market in Incline Village continued its growth with sales prices up 5% compared to last year at this time, resulting in a median sales price of $1,379,000 for a
The most popular price point was in between $1,000,000 – $1,500,000, with a total of 18 sales. One of the most popular neighborhoods in terms of sales was Lower Tyner, with nine sales. Tying right behind that with eight sales each were Lakeview Subdivision, The Woods, and Jennifer, these areas were popular but for differing reasons.
Lower Tyner tends to be the most popular in sales year over year, and this is likely due to the price point and inventory levels. Lower Tyner is desirable in winter due to its lower-to-mid elevation, and many of the homes have lake views or mountain views. This neighborhood has a good concentration of year-round residents.
Lakeview Subdivision is the new hotspot for redevelopment with Freels Peak at the heart of it. Three homes were just purchased on Freels Peak with the intent of tearing down and building new. This is in addition to the four homes that are already under construction or were just completed.
The Woods is a relatively low elevation and boasts significant level lots plus a central location. Similar to Lakeview Subdivision, The Woods has a lot of new construction and remodels. The price point is attracting buyers year round being just under the market median for a single-family home at $1,072,500.
Jennifer is a higher elevation neighborhood that is reaping the benefits of summer snowmelt and an attractive price range. With a median sales price of $898,500, well under the market median, Jennifer appeals to a wide range of buyers. This area’s natural beauty is maximized with forest settings and no fear of overbuilding due to US Forest Service and IVGID owned parcels.
Condos | Real Estate Market Report
The limited number of condos for sale and a large number of buyers in Incline Village & Crystal Bay continues to push prices upward. The median sales price of $560,000 is one of the highest we have seen and exceeds the 2nd Quarter 2018 median sales price of $529,500 by 6%. In line with market trends, sales were down by 18% from 84 units sold in 2nd Quarter 2018 to 69 units sold in 2nd Quarter 2019.
The decrease in unit sales paired with a substantial increase in median price are signs that inventory continues to drop. Currently, the most popular price point is between $400,000 and $500,000 with a total of 17 sales. Compared to single family homes, condos have a relatively low 118 days on market, meaning units are selling quickly, keeping inventory levels low and prices high.
Not surprisingly, the McCloud complex is leading the market in sales with 9 units sold this year. With a median price of $647,200, McCloud condos continue to push the market price point higher as they outpace most complexes in our area. Further, Mountain Shadows (8), Bitterbrush (6), all round out the top 3 complexes and they account for 33% of the total condominium market in Incline Village and Crystal Bay.
PUD | Real Estate Market Report
As an ever increasingly popular category, Planned Unit Developments have enjoyed strong price growth while maintaining steady sales throughout the year. While most categories dropped significantly in the number of sales through the first two quarters, PUDs only had one less sale (26) in 2019 vs 27 total sales in 2018. This is likely due to the availability and accessibility of these units throughout the winter. Unlike many single family homes, PUDs enjoy snow removal services allowing them to be easily accessible during the winter months. Buyers that may have considered a home were likely steered toward these units due to the convenience of snow removal during harsh winters.
Following the trend of the other categories, the PUD market is also experiencing a shortage of inventory with only 3.5 months worth of properties left to sell currently. Despite this lack of inventory, planned unit developments are still taking an average of 161 days to sell. The high price point and the discretionary nature of these homes are likely the leading cause of a longer sale period which would be normal for our unique market.
The most popular complexes for these units were Tyrolian Village, Incline Creek Estates and Tyrolia with 13, 12 and 10 units sold respectively. Incline Creek Estates typically leads the PUD market for sales, but with a substantially lower median price point of $726,000, Tyrolian Village has become more accessible to more buyers. Overall, the median sales price for PUDs was within 2% of the median list price, meaning prices are matching buyer expectations which signals a healthy market.
PUDs experienced strong price appreciation with a 21% increase in the median sales price from $1,030,000 in 2018 to $1,245,000 in 2019. These homes also enjoyed a substantial 39% drop in the average days on market from 197 in 2018 to 119 in 2019. This drop in days on market fueled both prices and total sales volume up, resulting in a strong 13% increase in total sales volume from $27.7M in the first two quarters of 2018 to $31.5M so far in 2019.
By far the busiest complex in terms of sales was Incline Creek Estates with 7 sales, resulting in 27% of the total PUD market. Prices for these units ranged from a low of $1,430,000 to a high of $1,662,500 for one of the recently completed units. The next two most popular complexes were Tyrolian Village with 5 sales and Deer Creek with another 3 sales overall. Tyrolian Village typically holds the top spot for number of sales due to the size of the complex, however, sales may increase as the summer months continue. Deer Creek is a small complex that has seen a surprising number of sales so far this year, likely due to the increasing prices of single family homes in the area.
Lots & Land | Real Estate Market Report
Since Incline Village was first developed, the availability of vacant land or buildable lots has been increasingly limited year after year. The natural terrain and existence of federal forest service lots that will not be sold or built has capped the availability of land that exists for development. The vast majority of buildable land has already been developed, leaving very little inventory of buildable lots to be sold. Those that remain are likely to have some sort of building challenges as they would likely have been developed by now if not.
This scarcity has led to only one lot sale this year of $325,000, located in the Upper Tyner Subdivision. If the new owner decides to build, it will remove one more lot from the remaining inventory, further reducing the already scarce availability of buildable land. With yearly sales of lots never exceeding a total of 11 in the last 15 years, it is unlikely that we will ever see a substantial increase in vacant land sales in the future.
1st Quarter 2019
2nd Quarter 2019